​美国在台海施展力量的余地越来越小

美国在台海施展力量的余地越来越小

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US has less cards to play in Taiwan Straits

US National Security Adviser John Bolton, the US State Department and the Pentagon all blamed People's Liberation Army (PLA) fighter jets for crossing the so-called "middle line" of the Taiwan Straits.

美国国家安全顾问博尔顿以及国务院、五角大楼都发声明，指责解放军战机越过“台海中线”。

What's ridiculous is how the US and the Tsai Ing-wen administration are continuously breaking the status quo in the Taiwan Straits, but Washington is accusing the PLA of doing that.

最可笑的是，美国方面和蔡英文当局不断打破台海现状，现在却反咬一口，指责解放军破坏了台海现状。

Washington is following a wrong line in the Taiwan Straits. It is playing the Taiwan card because it regards China as a strategic rival. The US has overestimated its military power's deterrence of the mainland as well as Taiwan's wish to always serve as a US pawn. Washington has also underestimated Beijing's resolve and ability to take countermeasures. It has put itself in a dilemma.

当下的美国走了一条错误的台海路线，因为视中国为战略竞争对手，就耀武扬威地对中国大陆挥舞台湾这张牌。华盛顿高估了自己军事力量对大陆的威慑力，也高估了台湾在任何情况下都会充当美国这张牌的意愿，同时大大低估了北京开展反制的决心和能力，它正在把自己逐渐推入尴尬的局面。

The root of the unstable cross-Straits situation is the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) refuses to accept the one-China principle and adopts policies to confront the mainland. The DPP's act is partly based on political ideals and partly on electoral tactics. But it's uncertain how long such radical policies can exist in Taiwan politics. Washington is unwise to bind its Taiwan policy to the DPP's radical line.

民进党拒绝承认一个中国，采取对抗大陆的政策，这是台海局势动荡的根源。民进党这样做部分出于政治理念，部分是选举策略，但这种激进政策能在台湾政坛上持续多久是高度不确定的。华盛顿将自己的对台政策与民进党的激进路线绑在一起，这本身就是短视糊涂的。

As US warships repeatedly passed through the Taiwan Straits, why didn't they ever consider that the PLA would take countermeasures? It's Washington's blind confidence if it believes Beijing fears to act considering their relations.

美国军舰一再通过海峡，为何就不考虑解放军会采取各种反制行动呢？如果说华盛顿认为中国会顾及同它的关系而不敢采取行动，那就是盲目自信导致了误判。

Although China hopes to maintain stable China-US relations in the long run, it is prepared for fiercer competition in some areas. China will not take the initiative in escalating disputes, but it will fight to protect its core interests, especially on the Taiwan question.

中国虽然希望中美关系持久稳定，但也做好了中美在一些领域博弈和斗争会更激烈的准备。中国不会主动升级中美冲突，但为维护核心利益必将敢于斗争，在台湾问题上尤其会这样。

Taiwan is close to the mainland, and the latter has abundant resources and strong strategic resolve. The US, however, should understand it doesn't have enough cards in Taiwan. Washington is choosing the wrong place, time and opponent to flex its muscle in Taiwan Straits.

台湾离中国大陆太近了，中国的各种资源都能使得上劲，而且我们的战略决心非常雄厚。相比之下，美国应该摊开来认真数一数，它在台海地区的牌实在不多。如果在这里来展示美国的力量，它一定又是选错了地点、时间和对手。

The PLA has many choices, including crossing the "middle line," flying over the Taiwan island and even turn Taiwan into a Lebanon-like situation. These choices don't necessarily lead to war, they are enough to force Taiwan authorities to readjust their radical policies.

解放军可以有海空军越过“台海中线”、飞越台湾岛，乃至将台湾“黎巴嫩化”的各种选择，这些选择不必一定导致战争，但足以最终迫使台湾当局修改激进政策。

The US is powerful, but how many choices does it have in the Taiwan Straits, except to send warships and upgrade its relations with Taiwan? If the US military returns to Taiwan, China's Anti-secession Law will be violated, and the PLA will launch a direct attack. We believe Taiwan authorities have no guts to accept the US military, because they know it will be the death knell of "Taiwan-independence" forces.

美国总的来说很强大，但在台海，它又有多少选择呢？它的军舰来来回回示威，升级美台交流级别，大概也就这些了。如果美军重新回到台湾，直接触犯中国的《反分裂国家法》，解放军必将直接动手，那就将是另一个故事了。我们相信，台湾当局没有胆量接受美军重回台湾，因为他们知道那将是“台独”势力丧钟敲响的时刻。

The US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs again put forth a proposal on Taiwan on Monday. But if a military confrontation breaks out in the Taiwan Straits, the proposals will be meaningless and Taiwan's political patternwill be changed. The Taiwan Travel Act needs the coordination of radical Taiwan authorities, but this remains uncertain.

美国众院外交委员会星期一又在提交涉台新议案，但一旦台海博弈走向军事领域，那些议案就全失去了意义。一次深刻的台海军事对峙危机必将改变台湾的政治格局，美国的“台湾旅行法”等需要台湾方面的激进当局承接，但那样的基础是存在变数的。

Some radical Americans suggest selling more advanced aircraft to Taiwan, which is a dangerous move that breaks the status quo. The mainland will adopt stiffer countermeasures. Neither should the US overestimate the Taiwan military's loyalty. The advanced military technologies that the US sells to Taiwan will eventually come back to the mainland.

一些美国激进人士主张卖给台湾更先进的飞机，这些更是打破台海现状的危险行动。首先大陆会采取更严厉的反制手段，此外美方休要高估台湾军队的忠诚，美国卖给台湾的先进军事技术早晚都会落到大陆的手中。

Nor can US acts in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits coordinate with each other. China is restrained in the South China Sea. But if the US threatens the security of China's islands, the PLA's military hardware will land on the islands overnight.

美方也不要以为它可以在南海方向策应其台海行动，中国在南海目前也很克制，但如果美方威胁中国岛礁安全，解放军的大量战斗装备可以一夜之间上岛。

The former US governments' policies toward Taiwan were basically prudent. If the current US government fails to understand the complexity of the Taiwan question and acts aggressively, it is bound to pay the price.

前几届美国政府的台海政策基本是谨慎收敛的。今天的美国政府如果没搞清楚台海事务的复杂性就贸然在这里铤而走险，咄咄逼人，它势必要为此付出代价。

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